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This is the rather muddled tale of the public holiday that disappeared from the French calendar four years ago when it became a quasi-working day. But lo and behold, and hallelujah, everything’s back to normal at last and lundi Pentec

It has not been made official yet but it’s already doing the rounds of the media both here in France and across the channel in Britain. The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, is apparently not going to back former British prime minister, Tony Blair, as a candidate to become the first president of the European Union.

Instead Sarkozy is thought be ready to throw his weight behind the prime minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker.

That should come as a relief to many a committed Europhile. During his decade in office Blair did little to move Britain any closer to the heart of EU policy making. On the contrary, if anything he pandered to a domestic public that had been force-fed euroscepticism for far too long.

Blair showed no political will for adopting a common currency, dragging his heels to such an extent that Britain still remains outside of the Eurozone – a position which is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.

He also resisted adapting Britain’s justice system to meeting European standards and kept the country outside of the passport-free Schengen zone. In other words Blair hardly had the credentials of a truly committed European,

Then of course there was his perceived “poodling” to US president George W. Bush during the invasion of Iraq, which saw him out of step with the EU’s other two political and economic powerhouses, France and Germany

It might seem somewhat extraordinary that Sarkozy should have put Blair’s name forward in the first place and on the surface at least this latest move marks an about turn for the French president. Just last year he declared Blair’s possible candidacy as a “smart move.”

But that might have been a combination of the rush Sarkozy had from being newly elected – remember he was very much in his omnipresent, firing-on-all-fronts-simultaneously stage - and an attempt to flex his muscles as the new kid on the block.

Dropping support now for Blair though isn’t necessarily a “new” Sarkozy in action. Ever the consummate politician, he would have realised from the outset just how unlikely he was to succeed with proposing Blair. And his apparent about turn could also be interpreted as a calculated move to assert his authority at just the moment when France is preparing to take over the six-month rotating presidency of the EU on July 1.

Sarkozy will be eager to get the timetable rolling along before the end of the year and wrapping up agreement of a common candidate could well help remove hurdles to the process whereby all 27 member states have to ratify the Lisbon treaty.

It’s a watered-down version of an earlier proposal for a European constitution, which was rejected by both French and Dutch voters.

Under its proposals a new president would be appointed for two –and –a half years, chairing EU summits, and taking on some of the functions of the current presidency, held on a rotating six-month basis by EU heads of government.

The president would also represent the EU on common foreign and security policy.

Although Sarkozy is now said to favour Juncker, the current president of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Baroso, cannot be ruled out either.

There’s likely to be a fair amount of horse-trading over the coming months with perhaps a compromise candidate being the final option. That is after all the way things have always happened in the past in a smaller EU and enlargement is probably only going to make it a more vital component for reaching an agreement.

Whatever happens, Sarkozy will have his work cut out.

Johnny Summerton is a broadcaster, writer and journalist based in Paris. Visit his site for a look at some the stories making the headlines here in France http://www.persiflagefrance.com or for his travel pieces log on to http://www.urlswurld.blogspot.com

In this essay, I outline Five futures for Pakistan: (1) the Pendulum continues forever, (2) Collapse, (3) Joining Chindia, (4) the Great Game, and (5) a South Asian Confederation. The most familiar and likely are based on the pendulum of rule by the military and rule by landlord/politicians. However, what is needed is to move from the more likely and less desirable futures to a process of anticipatory democracy where the citizens of Pakistan consider, create and commit to building their preferred future.

DEEP STRUCTURES AND ARCHETYPES

While the assassination of Benazir Bhutto certainly plunged Pakistan into one of its works crisis in decades, the recent successful electionsi appear to have brought hope back again. The extremist parties did poorly, and even with a low turn out and election violence, it appears that the latest cycle of military rule is over. But how long will this cycle last?

I ask this question as Syed Abidi has made the observation that Pakistan’s political system can best be understood as a pendulum between civilian rule and military rule. There have been six such swings, with the seventh toward civilian rule beginning in 2008.

These swings occur because of the deep archetypes in Pakistan’s politics. There are four archetypes in Pakistan politics – the general and military rule, the people and peoples’ power that overthrows the ruler, the politician-feudal lord, and the bureaucrat who ensures smooth transitions between all these types. Each one of these archetypes has two sides – the general can be protective and moral (the enlightened despot) or can be amoral, staying too long, clinging to power, assaulting human rights and using religion or strategy to stay in power. The feudal lord can equally be protective or can stay too long, and use his or her power for personal gain. The citizen can be chaotic or can bring social capital to the nation. The bureaucracy can be transparent and use their power to create a productive society (green tape) or it can slow the wheels of the nation, using time, money and symbolic power to hold the nation back (red tape).

Given these patterns, what can we say about Pakistan’s futures. Five are currently possible.

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

1.The pendulum continues forever. This would mean that after this particular civilian cycle, there will be another military coup in 7-10 years. Politicians will have some luck in ridding Pakistan of extremist fundamentalists, but old scores between the PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League or between the PPP and the military will still need to be settled. Issues of justice and revenge will continue and just as Pakistan’s economy is about to take off, another crisis will set in. Citizens will rally but then when they see no real change will become despondent. “Nothing is possible here,” or a similar catch-phrase will be the inner story. Globalization will not go away but the politics would swing between growth and equity.

2. Collapse – this is the most feared scenario for all, particularly in the West. Civil war in Pakistan (the provinces going their own way), the inability to stop jihadism, Al Qa’ida or their friends finding some nukes, not to mention the global challenges of climate change, all lead to a slow decline destined for collapse. And if the challenge from the Pakistani and Afghani Taliban is resolved, the frontline will switch to half-century old war in. Capital flies away, economic development slows down and Pakistan becomes a nation of competing tribes. Women in this future are particularly vulnerable as the battle between religious and secularists throughout the Islamic (Arab influenced world) is fought over the “body” of the female. Is she a person unto herself or does the strong male (feudal lord, ruler, mullah) need to protect and control. In the collapse, chaos would reign. Over time, and perhaps even quite quickly, a strong military leader is likely to rise (the Napoleon scenario), but can the great leader unite all the tribes (the challenge facing Afghanistan today)?

3. Joining Chindia. With India likely to move into the ranks of the G-8 by 2020, gaining a permanent UN Security Council Position, Pakistan’s only hope is to link in every possible way with India and China – or Chindia. Certainly Pakistan will favor the China part of the amazing rise, but in any case, in this future, economic growth is far more important than ideological struggles. To move in this direction, the Singapore or Malaysian model may be adopted. This model is characterized by a clear vision of the future, transparency; break up of the feudal system, limited democracy (One party rule) and creatively finding a niche role in the global economy, and then using that to springboard to becoming a global player. However, the India example shows that economic rise is possible outside the East Asian model. In any case, this future is hopeful but requires investment in infrastructure and a favoring of globalized capitalism. Instead of lamenting the colonial past, in this Chindia future, Pakistan creates its own transnational corporations. Politics moves from focusing on old wrongs (Kashmir, for example) to desired futures. Instead of Chindia, Chindistan is created.

4. The fourth scenario is the Great Game.vi Pakistan remains a pawn, moved around for the strategic and ideological purposes of the great powers. Whether in proxy wars against the Russians or against 9/11 jihadis or whoever may be next, Pakistan’s capacity to influence its future is low or non-existent. At best, it can only rent out its military, or territory, for others’ battles. In this future (as in the current present), the rental receipts do not lead to even development –they merely enrich those getting the rent, generally the military. The national game becomes not how to transform the great game but how to get a piece of the action, legitimately or illegitimately. Those not part of the money game sing songs of grand conspiracies. These songs take away agency. While Pakistan has a dependency relationship with the rest of the world, citizens have a dependency – child/adult – relationship with the government, expecting it to solve each and every problem, without taking responsibility for their own actions and blaming the government when it fails. At the collective level, Pakistan remains rudderless, evoking the words of the founder, but unable to follow through with action.

5. A wiser South-Asian confederation. The challenges Pakistan faces are similar to what other countries in the region face – religious extremism, climate change, poverty, corruption, deep inequity, used futures and less than helpful archetypes – the only way forward is towards an EU model of slow but inevitable integration. While this may seem too positive and far away, it is not impossible. Each country needs the help of others to solve their problems. None can go it alone, and each can learn from the Other. This requires learning, peace and mediation skills in all schools; moving toward the sustainability development agenda; developing agreements in security, water, and energy to begin with; and a focus on the desired future and not on past injustices. Gender equity and systemic and deep cultural levels is foundational for this future. This future also requires an archetype that is neither the male general nor feudal lord nor the rebellious teenager, but the wise person, perhaps the Globo sapiens. Fortunately, the south Asian tradition is steeped with wisdom. Can this imagination be drawn on to create a different future? Already in Pakistan, there are hundreds of groups and thousands of individuals working on this vision. What is needed is systemic support for this future, and a move away from focusing on past injustices.

ANTICIPATORY DEMOCRACY

If an alternative future for Pakistan is not created, the pendulum will continue with collapse always being in the background. But this futures creation process cannot be done from above via a planning commission; rather, it must be part of a broader process of anticipatory democracy – citizens, leaders and researchers mapping out alternative scenarios, then analyzing the benefits and costs of each future, visioning the desired, mediating conflicts between the desired, and then creating action learning processes to realize the desired. Anticipatory democracy thus can deepen electoral democracy, bringing focus not just to futures Pakistanis do not wish for but more so to those that are desirable.

Sohail Inayatullah is a futurist and political scientist based in Australia. You can read more of his articles at his website http://www.metafuture.org , where you will also find a longer version of this article with notes and references.

The two major greenhouse gases are the carbon dioxide that contributes to the greenhouse effect to a height of 60% and methane. While methane has only a weak life span in the atmosphere, the carbon dioxide there remains for more than a century. why we focus mostly on the reduction of the emission of carbon dioxide.

When we use fossil energies, such as coal, the oil or the gas, we burn carbon, adding thus carbon dioxide into the atmosphere: about 20 billion tons per year in the world. The oceans and the forests and the plants; do away with about the half of this excess of carbon dioxide. However, this concentration does not stop growing: from 0.028% fifty years ago to 0.0365% today.

An additional greenhouse gas is the methane (CH4), of which the concentration has doubled since the industrial revolution. The sources are the paddy fields, garbage dumps, bovine farms, and the exploitation of gas and coal. The nitrous oxide (N2O) is another greenhouse gas that comes from certain industries such as fertilizers.

As we go about our daily lives we rarely reflect how our lifestyles influence the environment. While we may consider for a few instants that we need to be more environmentally conscious, there are very few of us who truly take the time which is due. The environmental science has made dramatic breakthrough in determining the causes of global warming. The comprehensive information about global warming requires our mindfulness as many of the causes of global warming are due to us and that the global environmental outlook is getting worse.

How is this conceivable? The answers are all staring us in the face if we accept to look at them.

The first place to look for some of the causes of global warming is in our food choices. Livestock farming contributes more to global warming than all other factors combined. While it takes on average 24 of gallons of water to create one pound vegetable, 5,200 gallons of water are needed to create one pound of beef, which strains extremely the water resources as we hear more and more in the news. Comparably, it takes two calories of fuel to produce one calorie of soybean, 54 calories of fuel are necessary to generate one calorie from beef. Deforestation, is another biggie, the livestock growth has created seven times more deforestation than the one caused by all other human activities. Water pollution, heath issues, lost of biodiversity, the release of toxins, antibiotics, GMO, pesticides, sewage, air pollution… are other factors that make livestock farming so detrimental to the environment. Researchers evaluate that 2.5 acres of land can meet the food requirement of twenty two vegetarians, but only two people eating meet, chicken, eggs or dairy products. Marc Reisner author of the Cadillac Desert, sums it up in these words “The West’s water crisis and many other environmental problems as well can be summed up by one word: livestock”.

Another area to look into is in our cities. Each time you drive, your car is emitting carbon monoxide. Multiply that pollution with the hundreds of millions of other vehicles and you can clearly see that driving a fuel engine vehicle does add to global warming.

One more manner that we contribute towards the causes of global warming is by deforestation. The trees in the forests, jungles and rainforests are the lungs of the world. By cutting down a great amount of trees the restorative ability of these areas are lessened.

Trees need carbon dioxide to live. When big tracts of trees are cut down in one place the balance is gone astray. The left over trees can’t take in all of the carbon which is in the atmosphere. Due to this reality, the carbon rises in large quantity in the atmosphere. This is also why deforestation can be seen as one of the main causes of global warming.

Aside from these factors, chemicals like methane and nitrous oxide are as well causes of global warming. These chemicals while in small amounts are not enough to cause deterioration to the atmosphere and environment. They can be considered as causes of global warming when they are used for an array of man needed activities. These activities include the raising of domestic animals such as cows. Other chemical contributing to the global warming are artificial fertilizers.

When all of these events are taken independently you may believe they cannot cause global warming. There is however lots of scientific substantiation which supports this case. In order to impede the dreadful aftermath of global warming you should look at the different global warming causes and see what steps you can take to circumvent them.

The more we appreciate these facts, the faster we can halt the escalation of global warming. We should not continue too long as nature will not wait for us to get our acts straightened out. The effects of global warming are warnings to us to adjust our ways of living.

Communication Manager for http://www.theglobalwarmingoverview.com. Helping grow an unbiased platform about global warming and the environment